Open Source - Major Trends To Watch
The Open Source market, when viewed by drivers, has following four trends that are increasingly overlapping:
1) Cost driven and centered on the Linux Operating system
The original market based on the simple idea of the need for an adaptable O/S that could be tailored to suit circumstances and allow the production of code and techniques to suit new circumstances. This market has remained largely focused on the Server as there is more need for flexibility and more opportunity to develop more applications at a server level than at a PC level. This has led to RedHat having been accused of abandoning the desktop market and the ‘faithful’ starting to back the new Ubunto distribution for desktops.
Today this market can be regarded at a Server level as relatively mature in acceptance and understanding, there are more question marks over the degree to which progress has been made in Desktops (other than France) or in cell phones where Motorola lost market share after the adoption of a Linux O/S. However if factors 2 and 3 below start to accelerate then this will almost certainly change. The challenge with this market is that it is based on cost reduction and is therefore an industrialized market on low margins.
2) Standards driven and centered on the need for non differentiated common software
There is a broad consensus in the technology industry that this is really the core driver by introducing business level software with new, and different,t functionality usually based upon the use of the Internet. In these areas the ability for wide spread sharing of a common set of functions to handle a non differentiating task creates both a new market, and challenges the previous generation of licensing terms. Many of these ‘intra user’, or ‘intra enterprise’, applications are increasingly viewed by the mainstream software venders as extending the market for their own ‘internally’ oriented products.
This is introducing active relationships where they believe they can gain leverage, as an example the Microsoft release of nearly 30 open source code elements to speed this up. To date SAP is the only major vender to have released nothing, and that may change following the release of ‘New Leaf’, their Open Group TOGAF based initiative this spring. From the perspective of a MNC, this is potentially a serious market built on adding value through designing and integrating the new external open standards for trading, and interacting, with the existing internal systems for recording transactions.
3) Requirements driven and centered on new forms of ‘applications’ and their delivery
This shift towards this new ‘intra’ standards based business from Web 2.0 through to CRM, and on to individual vertical sector trading standards outlined above has led to an emphasis on ‘how’ to deliver as the value moves from ‘what’ to deliver. Put another way, if the product is none differentiating and does not carry a margin, then the attention has shifted towards delivery as a service in order to find the margin. This is a very complicated shift that does not only affect Open Source and is worthy of a full discussion in its own right.
From the perspective of a MNC, the real issue is the increasing move these new types of applications are bringing away from major upgrade projects but towards continually small changes. This is bringing some new definitions to AM as well as SaaS, most of which are more closely associated with our core competencies than ‘pure’ SaaS.
4) Politically driven around the desire to overcome ‘monopoly’ providers
For a MNC, this is the easiest one to identify, and accounts for the booming market in France where the Government has driven the adoption of Open Source. However as this is not driven by technology but by the local market it is not part of this brief. However there is one note to make. The North American software vendors who feel this is a deliberate political stance are watching the moves carefully, and if they feel the situation goes too far have a stated intention to identify code corruption and take legal action.
As several actions have already shown license infringements are difficult to avoid, especially when integrating solutions with a mix of Open Source and Proprietary. From the perspective of a MNC, this is a potentially a huge risk as we would almost certainly be the liable party in such an action, and in the adoption of Open Source the legal aspects must be clearly identified and managed at a project level.
Source: Report where the CTO of a Major MNC is talking about the company's plans for Open Source